Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

places i miss burn while i miss them.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

a smaller mishap is called a kittenastrophe.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

baby bskypost script grown up to parse and support URL and mention "facets" (that turns them into links in the post) github.com/swaldman/sca...

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

❤️

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

what if we did a *reverse* merger? we could sell ourselves to Denmark for, like, $1, then we'd have Greenland AND a civilized state.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

when the US government finally realizes it has to arrange mass construction of new housing for climate refugees, my dream is @holz-bau.bsky.social leads the agency.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

Europe has Ukraine as a bulwark to the east, and Greenland as a bulwark to the west.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

i thought COVID would bring us together. i mean, it was the closest thing to an Independence Day, aliens-invade-Earth kind of scenario.

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

"When tariffs are moderate and are used to complement a domestic investment agenda, they need not cause much harm; they can even be useful. When they are indiscriminate and are not supported by purposeful policies at home, they do considerable damage—and more so at home than for trade partners."

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

(caught this from Tim Bray on Mastodon, just pulled the exact same quote! great minds, or sick ones.)

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

"This is the baseline of everything to do with social media. You can’t really keep up with the all the bad things people do within the business model. Period. End of story. " #JoshMarshall talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-e... inherently destructive bizmodel only survives bc Sec 230 too categorical

The Economics That Define Social Media

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

Josh Marshall is @joshtpm.bsky.social here. (I forgot to update to the mention when crossposting here. Sorry!)

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

the main practitioners of post-materialist politics are a few heads of state, who are making territorial conquest great again because they are bored of stable maps and miss the glory of conquest.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

yes. got that. but then why so strong a dollar? so far the best explanation i’ve gotten is markets expect inflationary shit, but the Fed is expected to crush it with interest rates, so the inflation won’t actually happen, just the yummy-to-foreign-investors high rates.

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

so markets predicting the Fed will force MAGA to eat its vegetables.

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

ok, so PCE sensitive to more profligate fiscal provokes higher future ST yields, geometric-averages into higher LT rates. FX market suggesting limited inflation. so basically the synthesis is expectation of a successfully hawkish Fed. 1/

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

interesting given the President-Elect’s propensity to try to bully dovishness. /fin

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

wouldn’t it be more bigly to go for the American Ocean?

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

how? they are after all cutting, albeit a bit more slowly than one might have predicted a few months ago. have they been jawboning the dollar up? are high long-term yields due to accelerated QT?

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

it’s just hard to reconcile the FX market and the bond market right now.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

crazy like a fox taking on a whole new meaning.

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

if the yield curve is foreseeing a US-specific Trump inflation while the dollar is sharply strengthening, that’s predicting a heck of a strengthening in the “real exchange rate”, US wages and salaries super high in FX terms, not so great for reindustrialization. 1/

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

i’m not sure i buy it though. i guess i explain dollar strength as a preaction to expected tariffs, so i don’t expect so sharp an import price change let aline inflation, but then i can’t explain the yield curve. /fin

in reply to self