oh god please no.
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i mean, maybe not. but cutting checks is an official act so the pattern of cutting or failing to cut checks represents part of each president's distinct portfolio of official acts, so is itself an official act, for which the president enjoys at least presumptive if not absolute immunity.
some people prefer the negative income tax and others prefer the universal basic income, so they compromised on the negative basic income.
i feel like my kid's fifth grade teacher really dodged a bullet. they covered the geography of the US southeast, including the Gulf of Mexico, like a month ago. it'd be a no-win situation if she had to teach it now.
If Trump passed an executive order claiming "yuge" the official spelling of TWFKAH (the word formerly known as "huge"), would @merriam-webster.com just comply, maybe listing the h-version as an alternate or archaic spelling? But Google, Google, is doubleplusgood. ht @gottalaff.bsky.social
Google says it will change Gulf of Mexico to 'Gulf of America' in Maps after government updates
Link Preview: Google says it will change Gulf of Mexico to 'Gulf of America' in Maps after government updates: In posts on X on Monday, Google said it will follow the government's lead in changing the names on its Maps app.yes, of course the shit they do is outrageous. but they love to be raged at. they thirst for our anger. the shit they do is also stupid, pathetic, and hilarious. they don't love to be laughed at. we love to laugh. win-win!
When returns were normal, people did not rely upon asset appreciation to finance such expensive futures. We've been in a capital-allocation destructive fantasy world since the mid-1990s. It's not just coming off the GFC.
It's all so very clever. So much respect for process, which process is merely rational, right? except it is a fig leaf for letting you suffer and die when that would minimize costs.
I guess @weisenthal.bsky.social can clarify if he wants, but I think the social contract he implies is number-go-up according to expectations set the past few decades, especially since the GFC. Housing number used to go up with inflation. That was fine. Now much faster. Not so fine!
It is to a degree. But as you say, it's massively skewed towards the very top of the wealth hierarchy, and it's badly skewed against the bottom, as most below median earners have very little to no pension/401K/ etc assets. Some amelioration at, say, 60-90%iles, sure. But not a great social program!
Yes. I love @williamcb.bsky.social's writing on this. The Thatcherite (also Reaganite) theory of no support near-market, just "basic research" support is an experiment tried and failed. China has learned something different works. The UK and US for ideological and rentierist reasons refuse to learn.
Yes. Firm values can grow as fast as aggregate production. But they can't perpetually grow faster without doing damage to both capital allocation and those who hold less than average (not median) shareholdings in dollar terms. Our "social contract" is an addiction to their growing much, much faster.
Sure. But productivity is reflected in (its numerator defined by) GDP. Profits can rise with productivity without redistributing to nonshareholder claimants. But that's what it looks like if they rise with GDP, not faster than GDP.
China doesn't sell below marginal cost. They sell below average cost, ie cost including recoupment of fixed costs. They've structured their economy that way, because externalities of production mean its best to treat fixed costs as partially a public good. drafts.interfluidity.com/2024/08/13/c... 1/
In a healthy economy, business profits do not perpetually rise. Individual business profits rise on innovation, then fall to merely the opportunity cost of shareholding entrepreneur time and capital goods. 1/
Whether the profits are paid out or retained doesn't matter very much, investors take their return as price appreciation (earnings retained or buybacks) or dividends. (It might matter importantly to overall economic efficiency, so long-term, but not in an immediate accounting sense.) 2/
Business value in aggregate grow perpetually, but the question is what rate of growth is reasonable to expect (and what kind of growth is reasonable for slowly actively managed baskets of firms like the S&P500, which miss startup levels of growth). 3/
If valuations of S&P 500 firms are held constant relative to profits (let treat them as certain), then either the basket should grow at no more than the rate of GDP growth, or else profits as a share of GDP must continuously grow. 4/
If the profits/GDP continuously grow, it's a constant redistribution of aggregate production from nonshareholder claimants (most notably workers), which seems undesirable. 5/
The only way out of this is to let valuations continuously grow. But that messes up capital allocation. Valuations don't grow for "ordinary firms"—neither VC-ish startups nor S&P 500 stalwarts. "Ordinary firm" profits get discounted at old fashioned rates, interest rates, plus a spread for risk. 6/
Absent some special sauce, expectations of support built into "blessed" firms like those in the S&P, 100x-for-winners expectations in VC land, people evaluate businesses by whether they overcome opportunity costs and penalize them for risk, just like you learned in any finance class. 7/
It is possible — indeed it is current practice — for the state to support continuing valuation growth among a blessed basket of firms. But that creates oligarchs of those in the blessed basket. High valuations means low financing costs. 8/
(No, firms don't often do explicit secondary share offerings. But they issue shares e.g. as compensation, and the higher the valuation the smaller the cost to incumbent shareholders. General debt finance is easier when equity is highly valued.) 9/
So, we can keep an escalator of S&P 500 growth at 10% while GDP growth is 2-3% as long as we want, at cost of creating a two-tier economy, distorting activity towards incumbents + VC-backed firms, incentivizing small firms to join bigger, more highly valued, less competitive agglomerations. /fin
we just saved, like, $500B we don't have to invest in data centers and energy. maybe we should put it into building amazing, affordable new neighborhoods instead?
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from @weisenthal.bsky.social, descriptively accurate, but a terrible social contract. mkts can't simultaneously be good capital allocators and a reliable xfers program, just like housing cannot be both continuously affordable and a good investment. plus it's a distributionally awful xfers program.