Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

oh god please no.

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

i mean, maybe not. but cutting checks is an official act so the pattern of cutting or failing to cut checks represents part of each president's distinct portfolio of official acts, so is itself an official act, for which the president enjoys at least presumptive if not absolute immunity.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

some people prefer the negative income tax and others prefer the universal basic income, so they compromised on the negative basic income.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

i feel like my kid's fifth grade teacher really dodged a bullet. they covered the geography of the US southeast, including the Gulf of Mexico, like a month ago. it'd be a no-win situation if she had to teach it now.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

If Trump passed an executive order claiming "yuge" the official spelling of TWFKAH (the word formerly known as "huge"), would @merriam-webster.com just comply, maybe listing the h-version as an alternate or archaic spelling? But Google, Google, is doubleplusgood. ht @gottalaff.bsky.social

Link Preview: 
Google says it will change Gulf of Mexico to 'Gulf of America' in Maps after government updates: In posts on X on Monday, Google said it will follow the government's lead in changing the names on its Maps app.

Google says it will change Gulf of Mexico to 'Gulf of America' in Maps after government updates

Link Preview: Google says it will change Gulf of Mexico to 'Gulf of America' in Maps after government updates: In posts on X on Monday, Google said it will follow the government's lead in changing the names on its Maps app.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

yeah, but i heard you're free software.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

yes, of course the shit they do is outrageous. but they love to be raged at. they thirst for our anger. the shit they do is also stupid, pathetic, and hilarious. they don't love to be laughed at. we love to laugh. win-win!

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

📌

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

When returns were normal, people did not rely upon asset appreciation to finance such expensive futures. We've been in a capital-allocation destructive fantasy world since the mid-1990s. It's not just coming off the GFC.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

It's all so very clever. So much respect for process, which process is merely rational, right? except it is a fig leaf for letting you suffer and die when that would minimize costs.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

I guess @weisenthal.bsky.social can clarify if he wants, but I think the social contract he implies is number-go-up according to expectations set the past few decades, especially since the GFC. Housing number used to go up with inflation. That was fine. Now much faster. Not so fine!

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

It is to a degree. But as you say, it's massively skewed towards the very top of the wealth hierarchy, and it's badly skewed against the bottom, as most below median earners have very little to no pension/401K/ etc assets. Some amelioration at, say, 60-90%iles, sure. But not a great social program!

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

Yes. I love @williamcb.bsky.social's writing on this. The Thatcherite (also Reaganite) theory of no support near-market, just "basic research" support is an experiment tried and failed. China has learned something different works. The UK and US for ideological and rentierist reasons refuse to learn.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

Yes. Firm values can grow as fast as aggregate production. But they can't perpetually grow faster without doing damage to both capital allocation and those who hold less than average (not median) shareholdings in dollar terms. Our "social contract" is an addiction to their growing much, much faster.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

(i love parentheses (especially when they are nested)🙂)

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

Sure. But productivity is reflected in (its numerator defined by) GDP. Profits can rise with productivity without redistributing to nonshareholder claimants. But that's what it looks like if they rise with GDP, not faster than GDP.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

China doesn't sell below marginal cost. They sell below average cost, ie cost including recoupment of fixed costs. They've structured their economy that way, because externalities of production mean its best to treat fixed costs as partially a public good. drafts.interfluidity.com/2024/08/13/c... 1/

China as a model

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

We recognize that to a degree. We don't think it's weird that states will pay to build a new road, in order to support a new factory and lots of jobs. Why then is it weird if they pay in part for building the factory? What fundamentally is the difference? /fin

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

In a healthy economy, business profits do not perpetually rise. Individual business profits rise on innovation, then fall to merely the opportunity cost of shareholding entrepreneur time and capital goods. 1/

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

Whether the profits are paid out or retained doesn't matter very much, investors take their return as price appreciation (earnings retained or buybacks) or dividends. (It might matter importantly to overall economic efficiency, so long-term, but not in an immediate accounting sense.) 2/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

Business value in aggregate grow perpetually, but the question is what rate of growth is reasonable to expect (and what kind of growth is reasonable for slowly actively managed baskets of firms like the S&P500, which miss startup levels of growth). 3/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

If valuations of S&P 500 firms are held constant relative to profits (let treat them as certain), then either the basket should grow at no more than the rate of GDP growth, or else profits as a share of GDP must continuously grow. 4/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

If the profits/GDP continuously grow, it's a constant redistribution of aggregate production from nonshareholder claimants (most notably workers), which seems undesirable. 5/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

The only way out of this is to let valuations continuously grow. But that messes up capital allocation. Valuations don't grow for "ordinary firms"—neither VC-ish startups nor S&P 500 stalwarts. "Ordinary firm" profits get discounted at old fashioned rates, interest rates, plus a spread for risk. 6/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

Absent some special sauce, expectations of support built into "blessed" firms like those in the S&P, 100x-for-winners expectations in VC land, people evaluate businesses by whether they overcome opportunity costs and penalize them for risk, just like you learned in any finance class. 7/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

It is possible — indeed it is current practice — for the state to support continuing valuation growth among a blessed basket of firms. But that creates oligarchs of those in the blessed basket. High valuations means low financing costs. 8/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

(No, firms don't often do explicit secondary share offerings. But they issue shares e.g. as compensation, and the higher the valuation the smaller the cost to incumbent shareholders. General debt finance is easier when equity is highly valued.) 9/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

So, we can keep an escalator of S&P 500 growth at 10% while GDP growth is 2-3% as long as we want, at cost of creating a two-tier economy, distorting activity towards incumbents + VC-backed firms, incentivizing small firms to join bigger, more highly valued, less competitive agglomerations. /fin

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

we just saved, like, $500B we don't have to invest in data centers and energy. maybe we should put it into building amazing, affordable new neighborhoods instead?

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

from @weisenthal.bsky.social, descriptively accurate, but a terrible social contract. mkts can't simultaneously be good capital allocators and a reliable xfers program, just like housing cannot be both continuously affordable and a good investment. plus it's a distributionally awful xfers program.