Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
[tech notebook] Adolescent DeepSeek on a Mac laptop https://tech.interfluidity.com/2025/01/28/adolescent-deepseek-on-a-mac-laptop/index.html
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
(i’m morbidly curious how Apple will handle the Gulf of Mexico thing.)
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
Yes. It’s extraordinary. They imposed profound material risks on much of the population, and with a few protestations of states rights, some tenuous promises not to do more at the national level, they were rewarded with full control of the federal government. I still have a hard time believing it.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
Norms only exist when there is a community of agents to enforce them. When there are only two agents, there’s no such thing as a norm, only cooperation or conflict. 1/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
There can be Nash equilibria supporting cooperation with only two players, sure. But they’re fragile in practice. If defection yields a strong negative payout to the sole other player, its capacity to punish ex post and so deter ex ante will be weak. 2/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
Norms can be thought of as Nash equilibria in very multiplayer games. They are strong if (and only if) defection can’t kneecap the whole community’s capability to punish. In practice that’s often the case. 3/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
When there are broad communities, norms really can support cooperation! But much less so when the game collapses effectively to only two players. /fin
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
the colombia fracas, the omb fracas, only over the last few days. i think we’ll see the same with some of the tariff threats against e.g. Canada and Mexico. will their really be an abrupt 25%? (we already did see a Mex tariff walkback and declaration of victory once, after a Sheinbaum call.) 1/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
oddly, a template might be abortion, where the GOP really did catch the car and face some consequences. but Trump had such success neutralizing the issue by walking it back, yet still gets credit from his own side for killing roe. others faced consequences, but Trump enjoyed having it both ways./fin
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
i think the plan is to pull this kind if shit so much, with rollbacks each time less complete, so the net effect is a kind of incrementalism camouflaged by chaos and an opposition cowed for fear of seeming to overreact again.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
proclaim policy so extreme and destructive it’d be the dog catching the car if actually implemented. then walk it back declaring some misunderstanding or bullshit victory. 1/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
you never have to face or be held accountable for the consequences of your proposals. you thrill your partisans. you leave your opponents bewildered and preoccupied. they come off as overwrought, nervous nellies. /fin
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
i often wonder about the gentleman.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
so many contenders!
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
not the point, but in what world is the Manhattan Institute — Chris Rufo’s employer — “a center-right think tank”? i’m sorry, you don’t get to hire and fund arsonists and claim to be the sober center.
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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
from @jamellebouie.net www.nytimes.com/2024/12/18/o... democrats are always trying to be “generic democrat”. no one is mad at generic democrat, no donor is alienated. generic democrat polls pretty well! but generic democrat is an empty suit. we need people to lead, or, right now, to brawl.
Text: At the heart of all of this - whether it comes from congressional leaders, ordinary lawmakers or top pollsters - is the idea that Democrats can float above the fray and reap the political rewards of any chaos and dysfunction. Besides, voters say they want compromise - and what else can Democrats do but follow the polls?
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
tonight they begin starving the children. it isn’t complicated.
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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
[tech notebook] Baby DeepSeek on a Mac laptop tech.interfluidity.com/2025/01/28/b...
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
i wonder if banks will discount frozen grants.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
maybe if Trump froze Democratic legislators salaries, Democratic leadership would finally act like a political party in serious opposition rather than a jobs program win or lose. US legislators of both parties have to learn it's no good keeping your jobs if you let the country fall to ruin.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
i'm afraid that's a deal they're trying to trick us into. see! govt doesn't work (when we, um, break it). let's drown it in a bathtub! you keep your thousands. we'll keep our billions. you'll do without everything, we can buy anything. we've got to keep the faith, then tax with abandon.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
what Trump doesn't get is the deep export of the United States is security services, the overpricing of our currency that let's us buy so much shit is in significant part downstream from support by security clients, and by destroying that business he's not winning anything and putting lots at risk.
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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
they think it's savvy to tell us the vibes, the culture, the kids, the cool kids, the housewives, the working man, the hippies & new age chicks, anybody, everybody, is going nazi. they concern troll, dig the clicks and shouting matches, don't exactly mean to help make it so as they help make it so.
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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
OMG what if it includes agency loans! trapped homeowners, wannabe home buyers, and the real-estate industry could really go gaga for MAGA!
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