Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

look, i’m not really dead, the operation in which i was detonated was like 8th time as farce.

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

we’re all thin-skinned, but it isn’t about our pride or our takes or careers. when we forget that we’ll find we have less to be proud of and that our takes in fact grow stupider.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

You have notifications.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

it’s not, as long as long as cap gains are matched by rising rents! again, the only cap gains that aren’t offset are when prices rise faster than capitalized rents, in one sense, the definition of a housing bubble!

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

I can agree that a holistic net wealth tax, rather than a tax specific to real property, would be better. after all, it is the state that organizes the infrastructure for secures ones entire wealth position. 1/

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

This would eliminate any “double taxation”: Taxes paid one year would decrease net wealth, if not replaced by income. /fin

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

it’s also relevant to the personal situation of a homeowner. say you own a $2M home, but for whatever reasons, that’s effectively necessary, there are no reasonable cheaper options. you can sell and rent, but the stream of rents would capitalize to the same $2M you’d realize on sale. 1/

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

then what is your net worth? well, on the one hand, it’s $2M higher than if you didn’t own the home! you are definitely better off than owing a stream of rents worth $2M and having no corresponding asset. but you are not “rich”. all of your wealth is spoken for. 2/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

if you can downgrade, say, in a few years when your kids are grown, then you do have net wealth. but another way of saying that is the stream of rents you’d owe without the house would capitalize to less than the $2M the house is worth, because the rents owed would decrease over time. 3/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

you only have net wealth, though, to the degree you can reasonably consider downgrading, if the value if your home is no more than the capitalized value of what it would cost to rent. 4/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

(that last is not always true! in the runup to 2008, price-to-rent ratios were very elevated, you could sell, owe the capitalized rent stream, and still come out ahead.) 5/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

(a bit ironically housing wealth is only “real” wealth to a homeowner when it is “frothy”, when it has outrun its fundamental comparator of capitalized rents!) /fin

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

I want to see a lot of public sector LLMs. In fact, I think most of what contemporary tech platforms do should be migrated to the public sector.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

but they are arguably offset by an equivalent off-balance-sheet liability. it’s useful, as @kevinerdmann.bsky.social suggests, to decompose a homeowner into landlord + renter. as landlord ΔNW grows, and that typically appears on individual and aggregate balance sheets. 1/

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

but as renter, the same asset is a liability, only because of accounting conventions (it’s not a formally booked liability), individual and aggregate balance sheets omit that. for a homeowner whose intention is to not to downsize/downgrade housing, effective ΔNW is 0. 2/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

(interestingly, the main change is the risk level the homeowner becomes capable of taking on. a person with no assets cannot put $1M at risk. nor can a person with a $100K home. no one will lend $1M. a person with 0 NW, net their short position in housing, but a $1.5M home can put $1M at risk.) /fin

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in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

probably the best way to think about it is an appreciated homeowner doesn’t really have 0NW because they have a valuable asset in the *option* to downgrade. just how valuable that is, net of the disutility or diswelfare they’d endure for downgrading, is very circumstance dependent.

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

it’s weird how the current view from the right is most of us are lazy leaches and moochers but we’re not making enough of us.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

@kevinerdmann.bsky.social has really captured a dynamic (very empirically) that defies common intuitions, but then makes perfect sense once you understand it, about what and who drives (and is driven to penury by) housing inflation.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

“The value of future rent inflation is capitalized in home prices and counted as an asset for homeowners. But the cost of future rents is undetermined for any family at any given time…so…not counted as a liability.” @kevinerdmann.bsky.social www.mercatus.org/research/res... ht @steveroth.bsky.social

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"We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were": Elevated American Household Net Worth Reflects Poverty, Not Wealth

Link Preview: "We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were": Elevated American Household Net Worth Reflects Poverty, Not Wealth: Abstract
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

we should rename this site The Donald J. Trump Bluesky Microblogging Platform, just to fuck with everybody.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

i mistook the AI for a sentience, but it forgave me.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

a lot of the controversy is over whether the best antifascism is working to revert to the democracy—crippled and captured but broadly liberal—that we enjoyed 15 years ago, or else to leave that in the past and work towards some more substantive social democracy.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

the best laid plans of mice and men gang aft a-gley. but failing to plan at all is worse.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

you know trumpism’s days are numbered when the supreme court suddenly stands boldly athwart a trump or vance administration, erring on the side of forbidding rather than tolerating its putative excesses. they’ll disown their own life’s work to save their legacies and perhaps their skins.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

Good riddance old year.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

my kid.

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

Happy New Year!

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the pill. Try Soma!