While chatting with a commenter on the previous post, I went back to the Mathematica notebook where I had played with the numbers, and found an error in my arithmetic that is, as they say, "material". I erroneously used 68%, rather than 67%, as the late 90s participation rate, when I asserted that unemployment would be 8% today if participation returned to previous levels. The correct value is 6.6%.
That is, if an additional 0.8% of the "civilian noninstutional population" became active job seekers, but no net new jobs were created, the reported unemployment rate would be 6.6%. (The numbers, which hopefully I've correctly transcribed for a change, are May 2008 data from the June 6 release of BLS employment situation, Table A-1.) That's still a big jump from 5.5%, but it's a far cry from 8%, which sounds like a nasty recession.
To say I regret the error would understate the red-faced heart-thumpingness of the thing. Sorry!
|Steve Randy Waldman — Tuesday June 10, 2008 at 12:05pm||permalink|