So I don't fully understand those words. What does "cushion" mean in this context? Markets more liquid shld reduce a term premium, but I'm not sure that's what "aggressive market making" means? You find the other side + get out maybe suggests less market-making, you need 2 find opportunistic trades?
yields move. but it feels a bit like Greenspan's "conundrum", ones simple model of geometric average of short-term rates plus reasonably stable term premium doesn't account for it, there's something snuck in i feel i don't understand.
has there been a change in these institutional factors since september? or a change in the volume of expected issuance? if capital regs have shifted to make long Ts less attractive, is that one and done? (what regs?)
one way to understand things is we are high in our range. another way is that our old range is blown. i have so little sense of why rates have moved i find i have no basis to guess between.
why?
does higher deficit mean investors requiring higher term premium, or is the Fed going to keep rates higher longer because of it? (ironically since it exacerbates it, but you can make a case that bc the deficit is inflationary it has to, i guess.)
(do you think Federal deficit expectations have risen dramatically since September? Since the election?)
who are these masked men? what crime are they punishing?
so what's our favorite explanation for the rise in long-term rates since September with the Fed still cutting? market expects a slower pace of cuts, terminating and stabilizing higher? something shifting the term premium? what's the story here?
you know the Democratic Party is the party of fairness, because whenever they have to decide who their leaders should be the question they ask is “whose turn is it?”
i don’t think your characterization is accurate. taxing the rich more usually polls very well. my motivation here has nothing to do with the debt. i think democracy and billionaires are mutually incompatible and we should use the tax system to vouchsafe the former by rendering the latter impossible
but then things they think they lock can break as well. the institutions’ vandals rely on the institutions holding after they suborn them. they think they are locking but they may be placing us in a very fluid situation. i don’t say that with relish. it’s a very dangerous kind of fluidity.
it’s just that at a certain point they push in our stack too.
i guess i’m not trying to blame. i’m just saying it’s time for every stripe of decent person, even the kind who think of themselves as sensible moderates, to join hands on the proposition that billionaires are inconsistent with democracy, and taxes must be levied that prevent and undo them.
finance masters of the universe boasted and swung their BSDs and brought us the Great Financial Crisis. then Obama gave them a mulligan. tech masters of the universe boast and are on the verge of giving us bigger, crazier crises. i think what follows is an age of wrath. no telling who will burn.
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every billionaire is a mad king in waiting.
the sad fact is the people who received CTC felt it go. while it’s true and well and good to say Dems wanted to extend it, on Biden’s watch people felt that pain and most of what the US electorate does is ignore the details but register discontent by voting against the incumbent.
yes. Biden genuinely tried to do some transformative things (which i never would have predicted in 2020), and despite sabotage managed some extraordinary things. unfortunately what he managed was not the kind of thing people could feel immediately, but inflation + COVID support wind-down they could.
i won’t argue with you about urgency or how deep a hole we are in. if you have a faster, better, way, i’m all ears.
( although, to be fair, once a wealth tax is imposed, the wealthy will work very hard to shift that ratio. )
no, not relitigate everything at once. just reform the court, and strip the court of any jurisdiction over that reform. the rest can be reworked in time, as a saner institution reconsiders things. (but i’m afraid now is no time for sanity. we can only hope the country tires of the funhouse in a few)
wealth tax would begin with tens of millions in wealth. people with less than say $50M wouldn’t pay a dime.