betting on bond vigilanteism / rising interest rates as a catalyst strikes me as a weak case. forward guidance is soft yield curve control, and the only real constraint on dovish forward guidance is inflation. if your story is rates are to rise and blow it all up, you’ve got to talk about inflation.
(for all of that, we basically agree i think that infill supply effects are at best a long, slow slog, and that in the short to medium term demand effects dominate. my view is conditioned i think by a deeper sense of crisis than yours. i don’t think we have time for the slog.)
i a bit conventionally take price as evidence of demand. is it possible everybody who wants to live in SF already does, they just happen to be rich enough to bid up price? sure, i guess. it doesn’t strike me as likely. seattle builds, and prices rise. latent demand dominates. 1/
you’ll note i was quoting one of America’s most famously bullish, boosterish housing economists on the unlikelihood of homebuilders building down net home values. if you want a more dour, less bullish view, there is this one. www.thebignewsletter.com/p/its-the-la... /fin
It’s the Land, Stupid: How the Homebuilder Cartel Drives High Housing Prices
Link Preview: It’s the Land, Stupid: How the Homebuilder Cartel Drives High Housing Prices: Henry George was right about land values. And today we have a homebuilder cartel rooted in control of land and financing.
Text: When the current situation is broken and one party is determined to break it further, the answer is not to be the party of “We Want Things to Be Broken Somewhat Less.” The answer is to be the party that wants to fucking fix it. Radicalism is only sensible, because lesser measures are not going to fix the underlying state of affairs.
we could replace it with “Baby Santa”, to the tune of “Baby Shark”.
“Our Healthcare System, a Reign of Terror” by Freddie DeBoer freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/our-health...
Our Healthcare System, a Reign of Terror
Link Preview: Our Healthcare System, a Reign of Terror: the question is not "was this act good?," the question is "why is your moral judgment only activated for certain kinds of victims?"
if they are in the business of telling you what you like to hear, they are in the business of lying to you.
one way to understand the recent election is as a contest between reformists and accelerationists. that ticking sound we hear is the chain dragging our roller coaster car, upward, upward. Tick tick tick.
they can kill and murder each and any one of us. like weak, pathetic, men.
people complain that the English language is overly complicated and fussy. we have some great news! we're finally eliminating the confusion distinction between grift and graft.
a strange irony these times are revealing is theres no group weaker, more conformist, ultimately more pathetic, than the "rich and powerful".
they suborn the institutions then prove themselves right about the low quality of the institutions.
i don’t want to be a writer. it’s just there are things i want to say.
all of my castles are dust.
well, putting everyone on your parents' insurance.