as someone who lives in Florida and made a call to evacuate twice in the last three years based on obsessively monitoring NOAA websites, this is terrifying to me. the most Trump-ish state in the union, supercharging their (our) own catastrophe, blinded by false ideology abt govt and climate change.
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his diaper too.
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if you render a place completely uninhabitable, population transfer becomes as sad necessity rather than a crime against humanity.
what happens when the quasi-world-government just glitches out and goes haywire?
Next time some idiot is like "Mississippi, our poorest state, is more prosperous than France" citing GDP per capita stats, send them here.
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"The economic problems we face are serious, but this is not a serious way to address them." @rajivsethi.bsky.social rajivsethi.substack.com/p/reciprocal...
not much optimism about the dynamism of the EU in my reply stream!
here's a handy heuristic! when a guy says "They're eating the dogs, the people that came in, they're eating the cats…They're eating the pets of the people that live there." and in fact they are doing no such thing maybe don't vote for them to become the most powerful person on the planet.
so who do we greet as liberators?
i admire your fluency. i think the accent is pretty good!
ha! revenue means we can cut, lack of revenue means we need more cuts!
(just conjectural revenue then, to be able to claim “affordability” of a tax cut?)
yeah. much of the revenue would go to make whole disadvantaged elements of the Trump coalition even without recession-related transfers.
trying to make 10 year estimates requires conjectures like “do industries physically relocate to the US? which? what does that do to the allocation of labor? what is labor bargaining power like in this brave new world?” i don’t think it’s a plausible exercise. the uncertainty cone is too wide.
yes. definitely.
i think net of the expenses they occasion, zero to negative. recessions / depressions occasion ramp-ups of spending and transfers, and reduce imports. 1/
in gross terms? i’d have to actually review the numbers in detail. if the “static” answer would be 600B as they’ve said, than 300B, exports cut in half, might be too ambitious as a dynamic estimate, once higher prices and an economic downturn reinforce one another. /fin
I mean I just conjecture! To be very clear!
i think people underappreciate the degree to which this is revenue motivated. i think they've persuaded themselves they can ramp up tariffs and smother what they hate most, the income tax. they think things will reëquilibrate after a bit of turbulence, and then tax cuts will make everything amazing.
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it's such a politically savvy play — now that you feel poorer, the prices of everything will blow up!