i think net of the expenses they occasion, zero to negative. recessions / depressions occasion ramp-ups of spending and transfers, and reduce imports. 1/

in gross terms? i’d have to actually review the numbers in detail. if the “static” answer would be 600B as they’ve said, than 300B, exports cut in half, might be too ambitious as a dynamic estimate, once higher prices and an economic downturn reinforce one another. /fin