Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
i admire your fluency. i think the accent is pretty good!
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
ha! revenue means we can cut, lack of revenue means we need more cuts!
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
(just conjectural revenue then, to be able to claim “affordability” of a tax cut?)
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
yeah. much of the revenue would go to make whole disadvantaged elements of the Trump coalition even without recession-related transfers.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
trying to make 10 year estimates requires conjectures like “do industries physically relocate to the US? which? what does that do to the allocation of labor? what is labor bargaining power like in this brave new world?” i don’t think it’s a plausible exercise. the uncertainty cone is too wide.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
yes. definitely.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
i think net of the expenses they occasion, zero to negative. recessions / depressions occasion ramp-ups of spending and transfers, and reduce imports. 1/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
in gross terms? i’d have to actually review the numbers in detail. if the “static” answer would be 600B as they’ve said, than 300B, exports cut in half, might be too ambitious as a dynamic estimate, once higher prices and an economic downturn reinforce one another. /fin
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
I mean I just conjecture! To be very clear!
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
i think people underappreciate the degree to which this is revenue motivated. i think they've persuaded themselves they can ramp up tariffs and smother what they hate most, the income tax. they think things will reëquilibrate after a bit of turbulence, and then tax cuts will make everything amazing.
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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
it's such a politically savvy play — now that you feel poorer, the prices of everything will blow up!
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
not only does it have the lowest tariff rates, but the penguins aren't unionized.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
you gotta understand. if they hadn’ta cut a deal, they’d have had no shot at a piece of this. from @ddayen.bsky.social prospect.org/economy/2025...
Text: But countries are not alone in the boxes; corporations and industry sectors are as well. The phalanxes of lawyers and lobbyists who try to ease sanctions through their contacts at the highest levels of power now have a new target. Companies have been lawyering up for months in anticipation, while enlisting friendly politicians for the task. The White House has fielded hundreds of letters from businesses pleading their case. And it's already working.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
it is quite radical. and it does not in fact follow.
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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
they go around it to access information they are forbidden, not because the services are substantially worse the US providers. 1/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
i would hope the EU would not choose China or Russia's heavy-handed censorship. EU citizens could still access what they want. But by moving official and financial activity to EU firms, they could put their thumb on the scale of European network effects. 2/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
they should. /fin
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
neither China nor Russia have had a hard time replacing these services with alternatives their publics are broadly happy with, except for the censorship of some content they'd wish to access. i don't see why the EU couldn't do the same, without the oppressive censorship regime.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
so, are they gonna make liberation day a national holiday?
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
So, is the EU finally going to get serious about replacing US search/social/AI with their own, regulable, firms?
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
only three removals and we've a relatively sane caretaker. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...
United States presidential line of succession - Wikipedia
Link Preview: United States presidential line of succession - Wikipedia
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
(oh god.)
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
if you want emergency powers, create an emergency (by using the "emergency" powers you already had!)