Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
does this mean we are no longer liberated?
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
you have it right. in the US it's generally used to refer to the full nonfinancial economy, not just retail.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
our special relationship is we like to get high on main street together.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
it’s really funny what people can persuade themselves of…
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
it’s really funny people actually persuaded themselves Musk would be the voice of sanity. i mean, he tweets. he has for a long time.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
“it turns out that a statistical aggregate economic gain does not produce an increase in real world human well being if all of that statistical gain is captured by a single, tiny powerful interest group.” @hamiltonnolan.bsky.social www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/an-interna...
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
how long before this all shows up in prices at Walmart?
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
“He has to blame immigrants and the disabled, because to blame anything or anyone else would be to question capitalism. Which cannot be done.” @chrisdillow.bsky.social stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_an...
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
maybe you need to have a Hoover before you can get an FDR. (honestly i’d rather just have a US Congress that represents the broad public and is not supine.)
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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
the hubristic "best and brightest" are responsible for many, many, failures and catastrophes. it does not follow, however, we are learning, that we should therefore vest power in the worst and the stupidest.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
not sure the Fed's balance sheet keeps shrinking. ( source fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL )
Graph of the Fed's total assets, which jump during the financial crisis, continue to rise over years of QE, begin to decline but then jump sharply during COVID, peak at about $9T around 2022, and have been declining since.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
this is what retribution looks like. against existence itself. against anything or anyone that might have or might yet annoy him.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
i really hated that movie melancholia.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
RoW ex-China is likely to be unproblematically aligned on low trade barriers. Yes, before all this, there was a significantly likelihood that eg Europe would put up barriers to China, perhaps in concert with a saner US. They still might. 1/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
But China, especially ex-US demand, is a massive potential source of disinflation. So if RoW-ex-China wants to avoid recession, it can modulate barriers with China to that end. 2/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
For example, the EU might put up sizable barriers to, say, auto imports, where they have an incumbent industry they wish to preserve, and perhaps overcapacity due to limited US demand. 3/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
But most of what China produces Europe does not have an immediate need to protect. Like Biden's US, over a medium term, EU may be interested in more diversified sourcing for a variety of important industries. But that won't require precipitous imposition of barriers into the teeth of a crisis. 4/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
So what I'd advise e.g. European countries would be very narrow, perhaps steep, barriers to China in strategic industries, but otherwise openness through the adjustment period. The EU can afford an overall trade deficit at little meaningful cost, as long as its key industries are protected. 5/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
After the storm, they can go back to what we and they were working on before, more diversified and resilient supply, and more tools to nudge toward overall balance, without breaking the global trade system. 6/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
Those are important but less urgent projects. /fin
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
(i’d respond but you’ve said pretty much exactly what i’d say!)
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
If Trump remains obstinately on this course, a US recession (at the very least) is certain. Whether the recession is global depends whether rest-of-world big economies can get over either their austerity fetish or their unwillingness to seriously tax the very rich. 1/
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
(Traditionally, it's deficit spending that's considered stimulus. But taxing the very wealthy affects overall demand almost not at all, while government spending still stimulates demand. Investment spending is a function of anticipated consumer demand much more than rich-person wealth.) /fin
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
so far "it would be genuinely idiotic" has not been much of a constraint!
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
on Mar 31, I placed an order for a customized Mac laptop, trying to beat the tariffs. it was scheduled for delivery Apr 14. a payments glitch meant the order wasn't actually placed until Apr 1. the laptop was delivered to the local Apple Store Apr 4. I think they too were trying to beat the tariffs.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com
John Roberts' "entire project has been that of imposing strict limits on the remedial power of the courts… this has the effect of permitting the 'bad men' of American public life to make the law their perch and not their terror." @hurricanexyz.bsky.social eveningconstitutional.net/john-roberts...
