In the long run, said Keynes… 1/
local booms are normal, but they tend to coincide with local increases in opportunity. people are left behind, but there’s reason for hopefulness to offset the fear. 2/
30-40% national boom over less than 3 years is pretty unprecedented. there was no great national triumph, no glittering new opportunity to offset the shock. 3/
most of those of us who are not homeowners came to understand we never will be (in the US), and will remain at the mercy of a rental market also extraordinarily expensive anywhere you’d want to raise a kid. 4/
perhaps the storm will pass, the sea will calm. i doubt i will live to see it, and i wonder if our republic will. 5/
this was always the glaring hole in the Bidenomics story. they wanted to take credit both for wage compression and for the asset boom, without understanding that for the assetless many, the cost of the boom was far more than the benefit of the compression. /fin
it’s not a dark enlightenment, what we are undergoing is a dark reenchantment. people’s understanding of the world is increasingly formed by sources seeking to intrigue or awe, rather than inform with anything like procedurally vetted approximations of mundane truth.
if you configure a bell to chime every time you get a like, that’s an engagement ring.
to be fair, the humans don’t seem to do much better with their tiktok than the llms do with all the crap and slop in their training data.
lots of conversation inspired by this, arguments about interest rates and square feet etc, but i think people fail to appreciate how profoundly just *the last five years* of this graph have contributed to a profound sense of hopelessness for many of us. (with interest rates way up, not down!)
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i'm sure i've missed some text or tweet or mail or call and offended you.
after sunlight is reflected across so many funhouse mirrors, does it still serve as a disinfectant?
yesterday i was a bit shocked by the degree to which “flat earth tiktok” had otherwise perfectly normal people just asking questions.
excellent but dark. all i can say is, optimism of the will, motherfuckers. ht @olepetter.bsky.social
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i agree with that! it’s about how you generate supply, not just of sq ft of “housing”, but of desirable living spaces in dense, attractive neighborhoods, at scale and at speed. i think it will take some creativity.
contractors probably not. they have no ownership stake and are paid by the job. but "capital disciple" — tacit pacing of investment at an industry level to avoid destructive price competition — is ubiquitous. in the US, the charge is mostly leveled at "landbanking" by larger homebuilders.
i'm not advocating stopping sprawl, at least not in this conversation. in a US context, the argument that capital discipline / landbanking is a housing constraint is mostly about being a constraint on sprawl, so implicitly maybe i'm criticizing the blocking of sprawl. 1/
(i do want to encourage dense rather than less-dense new development. i'd prefer public action to build new dense places rather than private restriction of "sprawl'. i don't know if there are restrictions of low-density sprawl i'd support, but the experience of eg Boulder wld make me cautious.) /fin
different markets! in the US the reluctat supplier story is about landbanking and the sprawl-builders, not a claim that developers are rationing construction in Pacific Heights. the constraints that bind are different in different places, different markets.
sometimes quantities really matter. if you’re trying to alter behavior with subsidies, the subsidies have to be of the same order of magnitude of not just the direct costs, but the opportunity costs. 1/
no. i think no one can do infill at scale in already affluent / desirable urban neighborhoods, but homebuilders know how to do sprawl. the market would love the infill, but the incumbents do not, and unless the incumbents are downscale, they win.
i guess i think you are being unfair here to the plutocrats. it might have ended up becoming a destructive commute source to SF, but the people behind California Forever were genuinely trying to make a new city. if they wanted to be Lennar they’d have succeeded.
you will catch me in some inconsistencies, in that then i was not so sold on density, i was fine with American suburbanization (even if i liked cities), and thought there were few barriers to mcmansions as far as the interstate would go. 1/
