Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

they would not have shipped out out under contemporary circumstances. 1/

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

i don't doubt that countries facing an immediate threat from a nuclear or far superior military power may find it impractical to proliferate, under that degree of threat and surveillance. 2/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

but the debate over "whether we would if we could" is over. of course they would if they could, to a level that would establish "assured deterrence". 3/

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

states facing less immediate threats and less intense surveillance, still enjoying some degree of protection from friendly states or alliances whose permanence and reliability have been revised downward, will. /fin

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

and it is having exactly the effect that we told him it will have.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

Libya in particular was a catastrophic mistake in that regard. Iraq you could argue was a special case, the first Iraq War had not really ended, with the continuing no fly zone and sanctions. But Libya had just made a deal. But now nothing matters. Everything is a protection racket.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

"A week ago, Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of consumption was 2.2% q/q annualized; now it’s zero… In the 11 or so years of nowcasted consumption growth, there have been no instances of negative values (or zero values) outside of 2020…this is a somewhat remarkable occurrence." econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Nowcasted Consumption Falls to Stall Speed | Econbrowser

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

nuclear nonproliferation is dead. the scaffolding upon which it was built was enforcement by great powers of norms against predatory militarism. with that gone, unless it is improbably resurrected, every state that means to survive must find its own nukes or a close ally's nuclear umbrella.

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

impeach. convict. remove. rinse. repeat. impeach. convict. remove. rinse. repeat. impeach. convict. remove. rinse. repeat.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

it's all the same if you find yourself in the path of the axe.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

"You Can’t Put Too Much Water into a Nuclear Reactor"

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

this is a lie. we know the names of people who have died. Wah K’Ler Paw. Pe Kha Lau. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

i mean, the national security threat of X rather overwhelms it.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

it's remarkable the term gaslighting was invented prior to this administration. cf @ddayen.bsky.social on Schroedinger's CFPB. prospect.org/economy/2025...

Link Preview: 
CFPB to Employees: When We Said Stop Work, We Didn’t Mean Stop Work!: The illegal plan to dismantle the consumer agency is failing. So Russ Vought and his charges are engaging in some CYA.

CFPB to Employees: When We Said Stop Work, We Didn’t Mean Stop Work!

Link Preview: CFPB to Employees: When We Said Stop Work, We Didn’t Mean Stop Work!: The illegal plan to dismantle the consumer agency is failing. So Russ Vought and his charges are engaging in some CYA.
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

in policy, you can never get it just right. you should try to get close, but perhaps more importantly, you have to choose in which direction it will be less costly to err, then condition your choices so they will err — hopefully not too much but inevitably — in that direction. 1/

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

going for symmetrical optimality is foolish hubris. /fin

in reply to self
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

yeah, man. Europe is so scary. from ourworldindata.org/grapher/homi...

Map of homicide rates by country 2023, showing nearly all of Europe with lower rates than the US. Map of homicide rates by country 2023, showing nearly all of Europe with lower rates than the US.
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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

wasn’t this the traditional definition of chutzpah, when you massacre half your legal team then ask for lenience from the court because you’re short-staffed? ht @histoftech.bsky.social

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Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

maybe we could have a strategic sportsbets reserve too.

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

stop complaining it is the absolute pravda.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

it’s undoing an achievement in transparency for the benefit of money launderers and tax evaders.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

drain the swamp. screenshot from thread beginning xcancel.com/ustreasury/s...

Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

they are comfortable opposing Biden. it’s the basic Schmitt / fascist intuition, opposing the enemy is the political good. but now the same deed is just theirs, theirs alone. without that cover, voters they care about, “America First” voters who just want out of everything, may demur.

in reply to this
Steve Randy Waldman
@interfluidity.com

this Republican Congress wants simply to disappear, to be absolved of all responsibility for anything. the founders thought Congress would be jealous of its privileges. this Congress is desperate to escape the blame that might come from even the slightest exercise of them.

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