I think the project of our moment is to provide tools by which we get to bancor world without bancor/icu. We don't have enough mutual trust to let supernational technocrats enforce balance. 1/

But deficit countries typically want balance. If they have nondestructive unilateral tools to help enforce it, we can end up with a world quite close to bancor world (with some limited imbalance, in the exceptional cases where it makes sense). 2/

I disagree that imbalance is a feature not a bug. Some limited time, limited scope imbalance, for particular purposes, sure. But perpetual, unmanaged imbalance is a horseman of the apocalypse, in my view. We are where we are as a world because we abandonned Bretton Woods' near Bancor-world. /fin

You're trying to get to balance. Import Certificates trade cheaply once a country is in balance or surplus, they offer little subsidy to exports at that point. The policy choice becomes level of balanced integration, rather than a competition for trade surplus.

(balanced global trade integration)

(i guess this isn't quite right, because Import Certificates force balance immediately. you're trying to rearrange the economy so that trade would be in balance without tariff or subsidy. once that happens, import certificates become cheap.)

Great minds! It was an excellent idea at the time, remains an excellent idea now. 1/

(Yes, my preference is a "foreign payouts tax", that's the approach I advocate, but Import Certificates also compose — they're consistent with a balance norm, every country can implement them without beggaring anyone or restraining balanced trade — and that's the main thing we should be after.) /fin

This is similar to Warren Buffett's Import Certificate proposal, under which exporters would receive tradable certificates, $1 for each dollar of export revenue, importers would need to remit $1 of import certificate for each $1 of value imported, the certificates trade. fortune.com/article/warr...

cc @steveroth.bsky.social

[new draft post] Alignment is confinement https://drafts.interfluidity.com/2025/05/08/alignment-is-confinement/index.html

( riffing off of @michaelnielsen.bsky.social )