In about 20 years of this, that’s always been the claim. Look, they’ve gotten this far, it’s impressive, but it only works because they’re catching up from an extraordinary hole. The crisis is coming, any minute. 1/

I’m very fond of both Michael Pettis and Brad Setser. I got my start in the economic blogosphere in Brad’s comment section, in ~2003, when he and Nouriel Roubini were predicting China faced an imminent crisis in the RMB write-downs they would have to take on their Treasury reserves. /fin