absent policy to encourage exports / restrain imports, what prevents, why shouldn’t we expect an expansion like during the aughts? the benefit from petroleum balance is already passed, China is likely dominant in new industries (autos, batteries, etc) going forward. 1/

one can make 4% into the new zero (i don’t recommend it, but if long-term US NIIP/GDP stability is your measure of alarm, okay), but then you do need some kind of policy or plan to defend 4%. /fin