the marginal voter is not policy centered. the marginal voter has to be excited by the candidate on an emotional, "gut" level. 1/

the policy stuff sets a bias — the election was in a sense Kamala's to lose because her policies were more popular and policy-focused voters gave her a lead. 2/

but that lead was small. it always is — each party concedes the other party's position if it weighs them down too much. Trump became pretty close to pro-choice to neutralize the issue of abortion. 3/

policy differences create a bias towards one candidate or another, but usually a pretty small one. then the election is actually decided by enthusiasm, "vibes", "beer primares", "gut", emotion. 4/

that's the way our Presidential contests are structured. ask any campaign operative and they'll tell you it's the emotion stuff, not the policy stuff, that ultimately decides. 5/

perhaps we should restructure how we elect presidents, or the role of the presidency, all kinds of stuff. but here we are. /fin