i think you’re overstating the effect of flow on prices. there’s an asymmetry. flow has a stronger effect when a stock is undervalued than when it is fairly or overvalued (relative to peers, in absolute terms they’re all overvalued). 1/

when a stock is (relatively) overvalued, flow induces counterflow with little price change. when a stock might be undervalued, you have to pay up more to compel sellers. 2/

this is why exploiting information is hard. once the market sniffs any interest, you’re not likely to stay so uniquely informed for long. you want to buy silently, have as little move per flow you provide as possible. but if you screw up a little, here come the passive flows. 3/

and your flow quickly stops having a lot of upside. /fin