so, suppose four years from now, we have an ordinary election and Democrats win a resounding trifecta. would we tolerate Elon Musk retaining his clearances snd ownership of SpaceX, or force divestiture? would we tolerate John Roberts’ rejuvenated 6-3 majority for generations, or reform the court? 1/

then is it plausible these people, with full control of the institutions today and a roadmap to complete immunity for any legal restraints they trample, would tolerate an election in which that is a plausible outcome? this is why i lose sleep. /fin

one way to view the election is as a test between "mobilize the base" theories of winning and "persuade" theories. 1/

the two are not mutually exclusive, but there are real tensions! mobilizing the base may involve emotional language that offends "swing voters" who identify somewhat with the targets of, um, critique. 2/

in any case, the democrats plainly went for "persuade", the republicans for "mobilize the base". it's very clear which won. 3/

( i usually tend to argue for "persuade!", so egg on me. www.interfluidity.com/v2/6732.html ) /fin

one path by which this event may mark the end of the American century is that whatever vestiges of a soft power / aspirational advantage the United States still had over China is lost. 1/

if the indispensable nation is going to be a venal autocracy anyway, China may seem a lot more attractive than the United States. alliances and inclinations of the US’ erstwhile foreign partners may quickly reconfigure themselves to that. /fin

The title of the Frank opinion piece is terrible — sabotage, I think, by editors at the Times. The piece literally does not use the word “elite”, not once, beyond the title that they slapped on it. 1/ www.nytimes.com/2024/11/09/o...

I gotta say, the exuberant dunking of the piece crowding my timeline reinforces rather than challenges the thesis. The timeline doth protest too much. 2/

Why is it so painful to wonder if Democrats’ repeated choice to downplay New-Deal-style liberalism and run on a business-friendly optimistic centrism may have played a role in Harris’ loss (and Clinton’s)? 3/

(The tragedy, of course, is that the Biden-Harris Administration *governed* in the tradition of New-Deal-style liberalism. But they were shy about touting business-controversial achievements like successful antitrust suits. They did the actual work, but preferred to talk about other things.) /fin