@realcaseyrollins the USD is really strong. usually that suggests low inflation expectations, people don’t want to buy or hold a currency expected to depreciate relative to other currencies, which a higher inflation rate than in other countries should provoke. 1/

@realcaseyrollins at the same time, long-term bond yields are rising sharply, despite the Fed cutting short-term rates. that suggests over time the market expects the Fed will be forced to re-raise rates pretty sharply, which suggests a prediction of inflation pressures. 2/

@realcaseyrollins so, these things are hard to reconcile. dollar strength can be explained as a preaction to tariffs, but if so that should mute any price effect of the tariffs. something is missing from my understanding or analysis, something doesn’t add up. /fin