@mike_kraft withdrawal risks letting the whole region become like Lebanon and Syria in the worst case, or letting rival powers (one of or some combination of Iran, Russia, and China) provide the force-backed stability the US now provides. the status quo is superior in my view to either alternative. one might hope stable, genuinely independent, locally legitimate Westphalian states wld spontaneously emerge in current borders, but I don't think the weight of experience suggests that's likely. /fin