@kentwillard usually it’s true that gold usually likes low real rates. real rates right now are not low though. gold has been rising during a period when US long-term nominal rates have been rising, when expectations of cuts have been delayed and diminished. but maybe you are right about the ECB, and my befuddlement comed from a kind of chauvinism about the Fed. (rising gold may reduce the likelihood of cuts, though, at least by the Fed.)