@ouguoc at a meta level, this take is kind of making the same point i am: the partisan wedge on economy questions shows it’s not what pundits (or economists) think of as “the economy” driving the answer. if you think the world is going to hell when the other party is in power, you say the economy is too. 1/

@ouguoc will good “numbers” as the pundits and economists tally them eventually lead to good economy polling? that presupposes an answer to the essential question, which is whether much of the public is right or wrong to be glum about the broader state of things. if there’s more war and inflation or rationing due to supply crunches, “the numbers” will be bad and we’ll never know what would have been. 2/

@ouguoc if some of the sources of broader gloom resolve positively — Israel / Palestine cools off, the Houthis are deterred, Ukraine resolves in a way that seems to restore the certainty of a peaceful Europe, Taiwan/China strains stay subdued, etc — and the numbers stay good, well, then we’d all predict rising sentiment on the economy. 3/

@ouguoc the only test would be a continuation of the status quo. if the global center seems not to be holding, if augurs of chaos continue to swirl and the world in every sense continues to heat, but economically “the numbers” seem good, will sentiment improve? i won’t say definitely not! but i think the public is (correctly) not so interested in disentangling these things. /fin